Beacon Economic Forecast is Optimistic through 2012

Click on image to download full 2011 Economic Forecast report

“I have been a little bit optimistic lately, and for those who know me, that’s a relatively unusual thing,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding principal of Beacon Economics at “What’s Next LA?,” the recent 2011 Los Angeles Economic Forecast conference, cosponsored by the Graziadio School of Business and Management.

Despite an onslaught of recent statistic depicting the economy heading back into downturn, including the falling Case Shiller Home Price Index, Thornberg used some “quantitative easing” of his own, offering peace of mind to audience members with a variety of statistical analyses. Thornberg noted that these “shocks to the economy” are only transitory, and predicted positive growth of 4 percent in the second half of this year, 3 percent in 2012, with things slowing down in 2013.

Check out Thornberg’s full presentation here:

US Economic Forecast 2011

Brad Kemp, director of regional research at Beacon Economics, also offered a presentation on the Los Angeles regional economic forecast, which can be viewed in full here:

Los Angeles 2011 Forecast Presentation

Thornberg gave this summary of the national economy:
The Recovery is Underway and Things will be good for the next two years
  • Rising exports, business investment and normal consumer spending growth to drive show
  • Problems in housing / construction will stay in place
  • Local, National Public finances also a drag
There are future worries
  • Consumer’s have more retrenching to go
  • The Federal Deficit is Scary
  • QE2 could be driving another financial bubble
  • Have to unwind QE1 and QE2 before inflation kicks in
He ended his presentation with this question: “Will we have the political will to deal with these issues before they lead to another crisis?”
What are your thoughts? Please add them in the comment box below and get the discussion started!
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Graziadio Business Review
Graziadio Business Review
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